Powering Asia’s Energy Transition

Powering Asia’s Energy Transition

The Strategic Case For Thorium

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Abstract

This report assesses Thorium-based nuclear energy as a viable and transformative alternative for the future of energy in Emerging Asia.

As the region faces accelerating urbanisation, industrial growth, and an urgent push towards decarbonisation, traditional energy sources for both fossil and renewable. They are increasingly strained by scalability, intermittency, and long-term sustainability challenges.

This report argues that Thorium, with its inherent safety, compact reactor design, fuel abundance, and waste efficiency, may provide a superior alternative suited to the region’s unique constraints.

*Acknowledgements: The author thanks Mr Terrence Tay, Summer Analyst; Ms Anna Macinnes, Summer Analyst; and Mr Paul Lim, Analyst for significant contributions, editorial recommendations, and research assistance to this paper. All errors and omissions are the author’s alone.

Foreword

Mr James Tan
Managing Partner
Quest Ventures

Thorium-based Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) present a fundamentally differentiated value proposition for the future of Asia’s energy systems. Unlike traditional legacy nuclear megaprojects, Thorium SMRs are modular, scalable, and deployable in diverse geographies including land-constrained urban centres and fragmented island territories common in Emerging Asia. They can be manufactured off-site, transported as pre-assembled units, and installed incrementally in alignment with real-world energy needs. This modular approach ensures capital investment is matched to demand, minimising risks of overcapacity while delivering steady and reliable baseload power.

When compared to other energy options, Thorium’s structural advantages become clearer. Solar and wind power, while essential to a diversified mix, suffer from inherent intermittency, high land requirements, and extended investment payback periods, often exceeding 25 to 30 years in Asian markets. These limitations reduce their effectiveness as primary baseload solutions in dense and rapidly urbanising environments. By contrast, Thorium reactors offer high energy density, safer operation through passive safety mechanisms, and dramatically lower long-lived waste production compared to conventional Uranium-fuelled reactors. These attributes make Thorium not just an alternative but a replacement candidate for legacy baseload systems reliant on fossil fuels or ageing nuclear assets.

For governments, policymakers, and institutional investors across Asia, this shift carries significant commercial and strategic implications. Thorium SMRs support national energy security objectives by leveraging local Thorium resources and reducing dependency on imported fuels. As this report outlines, Thorium is not a theoretical solution confined to academic research. With active pilot projects underway in countries such as China, Indonesia, and India. Thorium-based SMRs stand as a commercially viable, scalable, and sustainable solution. They are positioned to become a central pillar of Asia’s energy transition strategy in the decades ahead, offering not just an energy solution but a replacement for outdated legacy energy systems.

Introduction

Thorium-based nuclear energy has re-emerged as a topic of global interest amid the urgent search for clean, scalable power solutions. Thorium (Th-232) is a slightly radioactive metal and fertile nuclear fuel (not itself fissile) that can breed fissile Uranium-233 when irradiated (IAEA, 2023).

Thorium-232 is a well-recognised fertile radioactive substance capable of generating nuclear energy. When exposed to neutrons in a reactor, it converts into Uranium-233, which then undergoes fission to produce electricity. Like other fertile materials, Thorium-232 needs an external neutron source either from fissile materials such as Uranium-235 or Plutonium-239, or from spallation neutrons. A key advantage of Thorium-232 is its natural purity, eliminating the need for isotopic enrichment and simplifying its preparation for fuel through basic chemical separation (Schaffer, 2013). Although the concept of Thorium reactors dates back to the 1960s, only in recent years has Thorium started to gain traction as a potential alternative to conventional Uranium-fuelled nuclear power (Popular Mechanics, 2025).

This renewed interest is driven by a confluence of factors: the growing energy demand in emerging economies, the need to reduce carbon emissions under climate commitments, and advances in reactor technologies that promise improved safety and economics. In particular, emerging Asian nations face a dual challenge of expanding electricity access and capacity for development, while transitioning to cleaner energy in line with climate goals.

Emerging Asia countries include large developing countries such as India and Indonesia, and other fast-growing Southeast Asian nations. These countries are witnessing rapid urbanisation and industrialisation, leading to surging electricity consumption that often outpaces current supply. Many still rely heavily on imported fossil fuels, which exposes them to price volatility and accounted for over 50% of global CO2 emissions in 2021 (NBP, 2024). Nuclear energy is being revisited as a viable solution especially in Asia, with 145 operable nuclear power reactors, 45 under construction, and firm plans to build about an additional 60 (WNA, 2025).

This report explores Thorium’s potential as a practical and forward-looking solution to the region’s energy challenges. It outlines Thorium’s fuel characteristics, examines how Thorium reactors differ from conventional models, and presents a regional view of nuclear development in Emerging Asia. Importantly, it frames Thorium not just as a technical alternative but as a strategic asset for long-term energy security, resilience, and sustainability. For governments, utilities, and investors alike, Thorium represents a unique opportunity to reshape energy systems in a way that is cleaner, more secure, and better suited to the needs of rapidly developing economies.

Figure 1 Energy Production vs Consumption in the Asia-Pacific (1984 – 2023). Source: Statista

Industry Overview

Asia is experiencing a dramatic rise in energy demand, driven by rapid economic growth, urbanisation, and rising living standards. Electricity demand in Southeast Asia alone is projected to grow by 4% annually until 2035, surpassing 2,000 TWh, which is more than double Japan’s current electricity consumption. This regional trend aligns with broader patterns across developing Asia, where total energy demand is expected to increase by more than 40% by 2050 (IEA, 2024).

Despite the growth of renewables, fossil fuels still dominate the energy mix. As of 2023, coal and gas account for nearly 80% of power generation in Southeast Asia, and their absolute use continues to increase. However, this reliance raises sustainability concerns, as these sources are highly carbon-intensive and subject to global price volatility and geopolitical disruptions (Asia News Monitor, 2024). In parallel, regional energy production has not kept pace with demand, contributing to widening supply-demand gaps in many fast-growing economies.

Figure 2 Electricity Generation & Capacity Additions in SEA (2003 – 2023). Source: IEA

To address these challenges, many Asian nations are strengthening their climate commitments. Countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia have announced commitments to achieve net-zero emissions and are aligning their energy strategies, including exploring or building nuclear power, in line with the Paris Agreement.

Nuclear energy is gaining renewed interest as part of this transition, particularly through scalable, low-carbon technologies such as SMRs. Thorium-fuelled SMRs, in particular, offer advantages including improved safety, reduced radioactive waste, and modular scalability suitable for decentralised grids (Hussein, 2020).

Globally, Thorium-based SMR research has gained traction in countries such as India and China. India’s three-stage nuclear programme has identified Thorium as a long-term solution due to its abundance and fuel efficiency (Vijayan et al., 2016). China, meanwhile, has initiated the operation of experimental Thorium reactors (Xu, 2016). In Southeast Asia, Indonesia is preparing for SMR deployment by 2030 with floating reactor applications to supply remote islands (IEA, 2024).

In summary, the convergence of rising energy demand, unmet production capacity, climate policy shifts, and growing global interest in advanced nuclear technology positions Thorium as a promising candidate for clean baseload energy.

Figure 3 Electricity Generation by Country & Energy Source in SEA (2002 – 2022). Source: IEA

Thorium’s Strategic Advantage

Thorium is gaining renewed global interest as a next-generation nuclear fuel due to its abundance, safety profile, reduced waste, and compatibility with SMR technologies. These characteristics align especially well with the needs of Emerging Asian economies, countries grappling with rising energy demand, reliance on imported fossil fuels, and increasing pressure to decarbonise. Thorium is approximately three times more abundant than Uranium in the Earth’s crust and is particularly plentiful in countries such as India and China.

Critically, Thorium is often a by-product of rare earth element mining, which reduces both procurement costs and environmental impact (Lainetti, 2015). This positions Thorium as a strategic domestic resource for Asian nations aiming to enhance energy security and reduce reliance on external suppliers.

Unlike Uranium-fuelled reactors, Thorium systems produce significantly less long-lived radioactive waste and avoid generating Plutonium, which is a major proliferation concern (Lung & Gremm, 1999). The key fissile isotope produced from Thorium-232, Uranium-233, can be burned in situ, reducing the risk of diversion for weapons development (Selvam et al., 2025). Additionally, Thorium dioxide has a higher melting point than Uranium dioxide, offering improved thermal stability and a lower risk of meltdown (Schaffer, 2013).

When paired with molten salt or fast breeder designs, Thorium reactors achieve higher fuel efficiency and extended fuel cycles, translating to longer periods between refuelling and less maintenance, which is an essential feature for countries with developing technical capabilities (Moir & Teller, 2005). Thorium’s integration with SMRs is especially promising for geographically dispersed and infrastructure-constrained regions. SMRs offer scalable, compact, and cost-effective alternatives to traditional gigawatt-scale nuclear plants, which often require USD 6 to 9 billion in upfront capital and over a decade to construct (World Nuclear Association, 2024). In contrast, Thorium SMRs are factory-built, deployable within 2 to 4 years, and can be installed incrementally which is often at a capital cost of USD 500 million to USD 1.5 billion, depending on scale (IAEA, 2022). This model aligns well with the needs of Southeast Asian markets such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and The Philippines, where infrastructure bottlenecks and constrained fiscal space hamper energy transition efforts (IEA, 2023).

Among these, Indonesia stands out as a regional leader in Thorium deployment. ThorCon International, a Singapore-based firm, is spearheading development of the TMSR-500, a 500 MWe Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) composed of two sealed 250 MWe modules, each designed for eight years of continuous operation before off-site refurbishment. In March 2025, ThorCon’s Indonesian subsidiary made history by submitting the first-ever nuclear reactor licence application in the country (ThorCon International, 2025; NucNet, 2025a). The plant is slated for Kelasa Island, chosen in part for its Thorium-rich monazite residues from historical tin mining. With an estimated capital cost of just USD 1.1 billion (NeutronBytes, 2022).

Moreover, ThorCon’s plans to establish a domestic reactor module manufacturing facility promise to create local jobs, accelerate technology transfer, and reduce costs through mass production (NucNet, 2025b). The initiative sets a strong precedent for how Thorium can deliver not just clean energy, but also industrial development and economic multipliers across Emerging Asia.

Competitive Positioning

Thorium vs. Conventional Nuclear and Other SMRs

Thorium-fuelled reactors offer distinct competitive advantages over both traditional large Uranium reactors and Uranium-fuelled SMRs. Conventional reactors typically generate 1 to 1.5 GW, requiring massive upfront capital and long lead times. In contrast, Thorium SMRs are modular and mid-sized (10 to 300 MWe per unit), enabling phased deployment, lower per-project investment, and suitability for smaller grids (IAEA, 2022). ThorCon’s initiative in Indonesia is a strong validation of this model.

In safety and siting, Thorium Gen-IV designs such as MSRs offer inherent advantages. They operate at atmospheric pressure and include passive safety systems, reducing exclusion zones and enabling installation close to cities, industrial hubs, or even floating platforms which gives the flexibility that traditional Pressurised Water Reactor (PWR) / Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) plants lack (Reuters, 2025). Such adaptability shortens deployment timelines, improves public acceptance, and provides versatility across varied geographic contexts.

Thorium also outperforms in fuel cycle sustainability. Unlike conventional Uranium reactors, which use less than 1% of mined Uranium and generate long-lived transuranic waste, Thorium cycles breed U-233 more efficiently and dramatically reduce minor actinide production (Lung & Gremm, 1999). Some Thorium MSR configurations can even consume legacy Plutonium stockpiles, positioning them as not only effective means of power generation but also tools for responsible nuclear waste management (Schaffer, 2013).

Finally, Thorium’s proliferation resistance enhances public and regulatory trust. While U‑233 can be weaponised, its typical contamination with U‑232, which emits intense gamma radiation makes diversion extremely difficult (Kang & von Hippel, 2001). This “clean slate” narrative can help countries overcome dual-use concerns and ease international partnerships and financing, setting Thorium apart from Uranium-based programmes.

Thorium vs. Renewable and Fossil Alternatives

Thorium reactors provide firm baseload power with high capacity factors (80% to 90%), unlike solar and wind, which require costly and space-intensive storage to manage intermittency (IEA & OECD NEA, 2020). In densely populated regions such as Singapore or Manila, where land is scarce, SMRs can generate significant electricity on a compact footprint. For instance, a 500 MW SMR may require just 4 to 10 hectares of land, while an equivalent solar PV installation could need 400 to 4,000 hectares, making SMRs a compelling option when paired with renewables in land-constrained cities (Bryce, 2022; ITIF, 2025).

Moreover, the Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE), which represents the average total cost of building and operating a power plant over its entire lifetime, for newly built nuclear plants is projected to range between USD 40 to 80/MWh, depending on technology maturity and financing structures (IEA, 2020). Advanced reactor designs, including Thorium-based MSRs, are estimated to achieve LCOEs as low as USD 45/MWh, due to passive safety features and simplified fuel cycles (World Nuclear Association, 2023). In comparison, combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) typically incur capital costs of USD 1,000 to 2,000 per kW, but their competitiveness is sensitive to volatile fuel prices (IEA, 2020). Meanwhile, renewables coupled with battery storage often result in higher system-level costs due to intermittency and backup requirements, with storage-inclusive LCOEs frequently exceeding USD 90 to 120/MWh (Lazard, 2023).

Thorium thus joins the elite club of clean, dispatchable, and cost-effective energy solutions – uniquely targeting markets where large nuclear plants fail, and where renewables alone cannot guarantee reliability.

High Energy Density, Small Footprint for Urban Areas

Thorium SMRs offer a uniquely powerful combination of exceptional energy density and compact deployment, making them ideal for densely populated, space-constrained regions in Emerging Asia. A 100 to 200 MWe SMR can deliver continuous baseload power from just a few acres, dramatically less land than utility-scale solar or wind farms that produce equivalent output (Idaho National Laboratory, 2024).

For instance, meeting even 10% of Singapore’s approximately 600 MWe demand via solar would require rooftops and offshore installations across nearly the entire island. In contrast, just two to three Thorium SMRs could supply the same energy footprint from a fraction of the land and be sited near demand centres, reducing grid expansion needs.

SMRs often achieve high capacity factors typically between 90 to 95%, substantially higher than most solar PV and wind farms (EIA, 2020; DOE, 2021). This reliability is critical for powering energy-intensive urban infrastructure such as cooling systems, transit networks, and data centres. In contrast, solar and wind capacity factors generally stay under 40%, necessitating extensive battery storage or backup generation to maintain grid stability (ITIF, 2025).

In ASEAN nations, where infrastructure is varied and islands remain underserved, the modular, deployable nature of SMRs offers a strategic solution to expand electricity access while adhering to climate goals. This aligns with studies in Energies, which conclude SMRs can match renewables on cost while offering the reliability demanded by urban grids in developing countries (Vinoya et al., 2023).

Inherent Safety and Public Acceptance

One of the most compelling attributes of modern Thorium MSRs is their inherent safety, directly addressing the primary barrier to nuclear deployment: public fear. MSRs operate at ambient pressure and utilise passive safety systems, notably freeze plugs that automatically drain molten fuel into a containment safe basin if temperatures rise or power is lost, eliminating core-meltdown risk and reliance on external systems (Hargraves & Moir, 2010). This design simplicity reduces emergency planning requirements, lowers insurance costs, and accelerates regulatory approval, especially important in high-density or island settings across Emerging Asia (Ho et al., 2023).

Fail-safe designs significantly lower project risk premiums by minimising the potential for accidents, public opposition, and costly regulatory delays. By emphasising transparent safety narratives that highlight the reactor’s inability to explode, its automatic shutdown, and its production of significantly less long-lived waste, developers foster social license more effectively than conventional uranium plants. This rising public sentiment in favour of safer nuclear options is well-documented in stakeholder studies and public opinion analysis (Bisconti Research, Inc., 2023).

MSRs also excel in waste reduction and sustainability. Compared to traditional Uranium-fuelled systems, Thorium cycles generate much lower volumes of high-level, long-lived radioactive waste and avoid Plutonium production entirely (Wadjdi et al., 2021). Some designs enable in situ burning of existing actinides, effectively converting nuclear waste into usable fuel.

In combination, these features such as passive safety, public trust, and minimal waste position Thorium MSRs as not just technically advanced but as politically and socially viable. In contexts where regulatory environments are sensitive to public concerns, and where climate goals and circular economy principles are increasingly central, Thorium presents a credible opportunity especially for dense, rapidly growing urban regions in Emerging Asia.

Energy Security for Emerging Economies

Thorium presents a strategic path toward energy independence for countries endowed with significant domestic Thorium reserves. Nations such as India, Indonesia, and Malaysia, particularly regions such as Kerala and Odisha in India, and the Bangka-Belitung Islands in Indonesia, hold some of the world’s most extensive Thorium deposits, embedded in monazite beach sands and tin mining by-products. India alone possesses a total of over one million tonnes of Thorium within an estimated 11.9 million tonnes of monazite resources, accounting for 25% to 30% of global Thorium reserves (Cosmos Magazine, 2024). Similarly, Indonesia’s National Nuclear Energy Agency (BATAN) reports approximately 137,000 tonnes of recoverable Thorium, mainly in Bangka–Belitung, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi (KAI Putri et al., 2022).

Harnessing these resources could dramatically reduce reliance on imported fuels such as coal, LNG, or Uranium, which are subject to global price volatility and geopolitical constraints. For India, with limited domestic Uranium, Thorium has long been seen as a cornerstone of its three-stage nuclear programme to underpin long-term energy security (Cosmos Magazine, 2024). In Indonesia, Bangka–Belitung tailings, currently seen as environmental liabilities could be converted into valuable fuel assets, with pilot Thorium power plant studies already underway to support local electrification and energy autonomy.

Investments in Thorium-based energy are expected to attract strong government support via streamlined licensing and financial incentives aligned with national energy independence goals. Indonesia, for example, is planning a domestic Thorium reactor project on Kelasa Island as part of its decentralised energy strategy (Invest Indonesia, 2024; Indonesia Business Post, 2024). Similarly, international partnerships highlighted by the Thorium Energy Alliance’s memorandum with El Salvador demonstrate rising global recognition of Thorium’s potential role in energy self-reliance (ANS Nuclear News, 2025; Thorium Energy Alliance, 2023).

Early engagement in Thorium development signifies participation in a national energy transformation, bearing reduced political risk, alignment with climate and energy security objectives, and co-benefits in local industrial supply chains. This positions Thorium not merely as a fuel source, but as a strategic lever for resource-rich countries to achieve autonomous, low-carbon, and politically resilient power systems.

Modular Deployment and Scalable Economics

A core strength of Thorium-based SMRs lies in their modular design, which enables standardised manufacturing, serial deployment, and scalable capacity expansion all while addressing the cost, schedule, and financing risks that have historically burdened conventional nuclear megaprojects (Locatelli et al., 2014; Ingersoll, 2009). Unlike traditional gigawatt-scale nuclear power plants, which often require USD 6 to 9 billion in upfront capital and over a decade to build, modular SMRs can be prefabricated in factories, transported to sites, and installed within 2 to 4 years, significantly accelerating time-to-revenue and reducing interest during construction (Zheng et al., 2020).

This approach offers clear advantages for emerging economies, particularly those with constrained fiscal space and fragmented demand growth. Rather than committing to a large-scale installation from the outset, policymakers and developers can begin with a single 50 to 100 MWe Thorium reactor to meet baseline energy needs and incrementally expand capacity by adding modules as demand grows. This phased deployment model mirrors successful practices from other industries such as aerospace and semiconductor manufacturing where unit costs fall along predictable learning curves due to design repetition and volume economies (Vinoya et al., 2023; Locatelli et al., 2014).

For instance, Southeast Asian nations such as Indonesia and the Philippines are especially well-positioned to adopt modular SMRs due to their archipelagic geographies, moderate demand centres, and logistical limitations that hinder centralised grid solutions (Nian, 2017). The ThorCon TMSR-500 model exemplifies this strategy: each 500 MWe plant comprises two 250 MWe molten salt modules, designed for factory production and sealed eight-year operation cycles. Plans to establish a manufacturing hub in Indonesia reflect the vision of regional self-sufficiency through mass production and local assembly, potentially lowering costs through domestic supply chains and repeatable construction workflows (NeutronBytes, 2022; ITIF, 2025).

Moreover, modularity directly improves investment viability. Shorter project cycles reduce financing risk and exposure to policy shifts, while incremental expansion allows capital to be deployed in stages, which improves capital efficiency and enables positive cash flows early in the asset life. This “deliberately small” reactor philosophy enables reactors to match regional load profiles more flexibly than traditional baseload plants, thus minimising the risk of stranded capacity and improving project internal rate of return (Ingersoll, 2009).

In summary, the modular deployment paradigm shifts nuclear from a bespoke, government-led undertaking to an infrastructure product that is standardised, financeable, and scalable. Thorium-fuelled SMRs stand out in this context, offering high safety, simplified fuel cycles, and a lower entry cost for emerging markets. As manufacturing processes mature and policy frameworks adapt, the modular Thorium SMR may form the backbone of a decentralised, low-carbon energy architecture across Asia.

Risks and Mitigations

Thorium-based nuclear systems, particularly MSRs and SMRs, offer compelling benefits, yet several risks remain when considering their deployment in Emerging Asian markets. Two central concerns are technological uncertainty and regulatory barriers, both of which must be addressed through structured mitigation strategies.

Technology Risk

Although Thorium MSRs promise higher efficiency and inherent safety, many designs remain at the experimental or pre-commercial stage. Material corrosion, especially the interaction between Fluoride-based molten salts and structural alloys is a major technical challenge (Wu et al., 2022). The Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE), for instance, encountered over 200 operational interruptions due to corrosion and control system instability (Lyman, 2022). Furthermore, the fabrication of Uranium-233 from Thorium and its reprocessing pose logistical and technical hurdles not yet industrially resolved (Daigle, DeCarlo, & Lotze, 2024).

These risks can be mitigated through phased demonstration projects, especially in collaboration with experienced nuclear research institutions (e.g., China’s TMSR pilot in Wuwei). Recent developments in materials science, including high-throughput screening of corrosion-resistant nickel-chromium alloys using atomistic modelling, have shown promise in identifying stable reactor materials. Exposure can also be reduced by linking capital deployment to technical milestones, diversifying across Thorium SMR developers, and supporting shared R&D infrastructure.

Regulatory

Most countries lack dedicated frameworks for licensing advanced nuclear technologies. The absence of streamlined, SMR-specific licensing pathways could lead to multi-year delays and regulatory ambiguity (Caballero-Anthony & Trajano, 2017). As demonstrated by the lengthy regulatory review faced by SMRs in advanced economies such as The United Kingdom, emerging markets may face even longer timelines without targeted reforms.

Mitigating regulatory risk requires early and active engagement with national regulators and regional policy platforms such as the ASEAN Network of Regulatory Bodies on Atomic Energy (ASEANATOM), which was established to foster regional cooperation in nuclear safety, security, and safeguards. Proposals for “graded approaches” and safeguards-by-design have gained traction and are being evaluated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA, 2022). Aligning projects with national decarbonisation goals, such as Indonesia’s commitment to net-zero and nuclear inclusion in its 2030 roadmap, can secure greater political backing (Murakami & Anbumozhi, 2022). Developers can also invest in public education and community engagement, as public sentiment has a demonstrable influence on nuclear policy in democracies (Vinoya et al., 2023).

Conclusion

Thorium represents a transformative energy opportunity for Emerging Asia, combining abundant local resources with high energy density, superior safety, reduced waste, and modular deployment capability. Unlike conventional nuclear or renewable solutions, Thorium-fuelled SMRs can be factory-produced, installed incrementally, and scaled according to actual demand, reducing upfront capital outlays and aligning investment with growth. Thorium offers a cleaner, more secure alternative to fossil fuels and a more reliable, land-efficient complement to solar and wind, particularly in densely populated urban centres and island geographies.

Countries such as India and Indonesia possess significant Thorium reserves, positioning them for long-term energy independence and reduced reliance on volatile fuel imports. Thorium’s inherent safety features address public acceptance barriers, while its waste reduction profile aligns with environmental and ESG priorities. While regulatory and technology risks exist, they are increasingly manageable through phased deployment, international partnerships, and emerging policy support. In short, Thorium is not merely a technical alternative; it is a commercially viable, scalable, and strategically essential solution capable of reshaping Asia’s energy systems and investment landscape for decades to come.

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